Thursday, November 24, 2005

Happy Thanksgiving

What an exciting week it has been, mostly due to the fact that there has been so much college basketball on TV. I must confess I have been like a kid in a candy store. It has been, in many ways, like a week of NCAA tournament play, with so many ranked teams beating up on each other. So, after watching many of the top teams play, I thought that I would give my say as to who I was impressed with and who left me me disappointed.

-Let's talk UK basketball first. There has been a lot of talk recently about how UK can't win a national championship this year without Randolph Morris. I say that is a very bold statement to make. Sure, I think UK would benefit from having Morris back. But I think that it is way, WAY too early to say that we can kiss our championship hopes goodbye.

The early season has shown some of UK's problems; transition defense, freethrows, sloppy play. But remember, it is very early in the season and all these things will get much better over time. They always do, and so I am not too worried about them.

And so we come back to the Morris issue. Can UK succeed without him? I think they can. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Strong guard play. UK has arguably the deepest backcourt in the country. They are quick, they have shot well, and they put tons of pressure on the ball.

2) Rekalin Sims. Sims has far exceded my expectations as a JC transfer. He is aggressive, he rebounds, he plays solid defense, he can shoot the 3, he takes charges. And he plays smart. So far he has filled Chuck Hayes' shoes well. He plays well inside and will draw defenders to him, opening up things for others.

3) Jared Carter. I admit I was very skeptical when Tubby signed this kid. But he has impressed me so far, not so much by numbers but by his potential. What seperates him from the other two 7-footers? He can actually catch the ball, he is quicker, and he is very agressive. When was the last time you saw Alleyne or Orbzut score on a mid-air put-back? How bout never. Right now he is playnig like a freshman, but so was Morris at this time last year. He will improve and can be a factor in March. And he doesn't even have to be scoring 10 or 15 a game. He just has to have presence and play solid D, both of which I think he is capable of doing. That is what spreads a defense out for the playmakers to make plays.

4) Fouls. All it takes is for a few quick fouls to equalize the playing field when your opponent has a better inside game.

5) Last year. Keep in mind Morris spent a large portion of time on the bench due to fouls. And we still succeeded.

Other reasons why UK can still be great:

-Scheduling. This year they are getting tested earlier and more often, where as last year they played a fairly soft schedule to start. And hear this, the SEC is going to be a lot better than people say they will. Florida has already beaten teams from the almight ACC and Big East. Arkansas beat Kansas. UK will be tested this year.

-Early loss. Every national champion from recent history lost an early game, much the way UK lsot to Iowa. In '96 UK lost to UMass early on. UConn lost an early one on their way to a championship. UNC lost their opener last year. Losses are teaching tools, and good coaches will use them to their advantage.

-Lowered expectations. All this talk of UK being nothing without Morris has ruffled the feathers of the team. I say let's fly under the radar and then dominate in March. Remember Syracuse in '03? Arizona in '97? 4 seed and 6 seed respectively, had medicore seasons, but got it done in March. That's all that matters.

-The fact that we are a 3 pointer from being 4-0 and in the top 5. Had one more 3 pointer dropped for UK, there would be a lot less talk about how we can't win without Morris.

Bottom line: the Cats will be fine. Tubby is good at playing towards his strengths, whcih is something he will have to do a lot this year. Am I guarenteeing a champoionship? Absolutely not. But is a dangerous thing to say they can't do it without Morris. And more and more it looks like it is going to have to get done without him.

But enough of that. Let's take a look at the other teams I saw in action. NOTE: Keep in mind that I am taking a totally unbiased approach here: I am just stating what I saw. Being biased towards or against anyone does no one any good.

1) Duke. I was not impressed, at least in the fact that this is supposed to be the best team in America. They blew Seton Hall out, but struggled against the other two crappy teams they played. And had it not been for Reddick's 31 points last night, Duke loses to Drexel. The key to beating Duke is simple: get Sheldon Williams in foul trouble (which is very feasible) and containing Reddick. Any good defense with the right gameplan can do this. Duke is a good team, but they are not #1 right now, maybe #5.

2) Texas. They looked like one of those teams, who, of they get hot, they are unbeatable, but when they play abd, they are real bad. They certainly have a lot of talent, but they are still young. I admit I have bashed Texas in the past because they have not done anything to earn their ranking. I still stick by that, but I will let off a little bit. I was mildly impressed, at least with Aldridge. They will be a team to keep an eye on, that is for sure.

3) UConn. This team plays solid defense and has some good playmakers. I would put them as my top team right now after seeing them win the Maui Invitational. My only critcism of them is that they are very sloppy and make some very poor decisions. But Calhoun is a great coach, and they will be tough to beat come March.

4) Michigan State. Poor State, they lost to Hawaii by 22 and then to Gonzaga in triple overtime. But don't count the Spartans out yet. They are young, and they have a ton of talent. I think their biggest problem right now is depth, and that will come back to haunt them down the road.

5) Gonzaga. Gonzaga is weak. Any good defense can shut them down, which is exactly what UConn did. And plus Gonzaga is not going to play another ranked team for 3 months. I forsee another early tourney exit for them.

6) Syracuse. The 'Cuse is done. Go ahead and call it a season.

7) Arizona. Hassan Adams is real, but after that they struggle. And playing in the Pac-10 doesn't help. They may win some games, but they will have a tought time in March.

8) Memphis. Memphis looked real good for a half, then real bad for a half. If it weren't for the inconsitency, I would put them in the top 5. Depth may play a big part in this. If they can become a more stable team, watch out, they can be very good.

9) UCLA. The Bruins are weak, although they did show some fight in the second half of the game against Memphis. Again, playing in the Pac-10 won't help this team at all.

10) Arkansas. Watch out for the Hogs. They can be very dangerous this year. They beat Kansas. Road play will be the key issue with them.

11) Florida. Florida impressed me, especially in beating Wake. But I think the element of surprise (i.e. their lack of a pre-season ranking) helped them a lot. The are a much more physical team then in the past, but that can only get you so far.

12) Iowa. Iowa has a solid team, and I was impressed with them. They beat UK an played Texas to the wire. They will be another team to watch.

13) West Virginia. This is one of those teams that, if you know how to play them, they are no threat. Last year, they caught a lot of people off-guard with thier back-door cuts and their 3-point shooting. However, UK showed that the zone is the way to beat them. However, they did have Texas beat had it not been for 3 missed free-throws, which says a lot.

14) Maryland. Maryland is one of those sleeper teams. They are young now, but will be dangerous come March. I look forward to seeing Duke visit them when conference play starts.

15) Wake Forest. Wake is gonna be up and down this year. They may pull off a big upset down the road, but don't look for them to do much in the tourney.

Well that is my look at the teams I saw in action. It is going to be an intersting season, as there are no real dominant teams like UNC and Illinois were last year.

Hope you all had a fantastic Turkey Day. Let's hope for a football victory this weekend against the Vols.

posted by Wes @ 7:02 PM

1 Comments:

At 11/25/2005 03:00:00 PM, Blogger JTapp said...

Thanks for the synopses. Not having cable myself means UK is probably the only team I can watch.

Championship teams of the last 15 years have had 3 common denominators:
1. A consistent, steady point guard. Felton, Jay Williams, Turner, Epps, McNamara&Edelin, Blake, Moore, Brown, Bibby... these guys were all good ball-handlers. They had good assist-to-turnover ratios and/or could play good defense.

2. A decent inside game (usually 2 guys complementing eachother). Okafor/Villanueva. Battier & Boozer. Ekezie & Wilcox. Mohammed/Magloire/Anthony, McCarty/Pope/Walker, Anthony & Pace.

3. A hot shooter. Sheppard, Dixon, Simon, Hamilton, Delk, Gordon, McNamara...

We have #1 and #3 taken care of in our backcourt, for certain. I think with Sims, and whoever else wants to step up (from the 7' committee), we have a good shot of taking care of #2. This is why this is our best year. #1 and #3 won't be there next year.

Teams I think are real contenders:
UK
Texas (if they get better as the year goes on)
Michigan State
Duke

 

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